Look Into The Crystal Ball: The Smartphone Market Cools Down

Market researchers are largely agreed: the era of double-digit growth in the Smartphone market is over. But it will not be boring so even long.

The worldwide Smartphone market cools down considerably. Market researchers expect that sales of smartphones from 2016 is still only one-digit growing. While the industry has increased its sales in the past year by more than 10 percent, the market researchers of IDC expect only a growth of 5.7 percent on good 1.5 billion smartphones in the current year. In the next five years the annual growth rate will be about 6 percent.

The golden days are over

By Kantar, also the market observers assume that the double-digit growth rates to end time is. The large markets that drive global sales, are largely saturated, it says in a new report of the market researchers. Mainly it depends on future growth, to motivate the owners of a simple cell phones to upgrade to a Smartphone, Smartphone owners the latest device to attract.

And that is not so easy. “Many cell phone owners want just a Smartphone,” says Carolina Milanesi Kantar expert. For these customers, especially the price plays a role, which is why it will difficult to convince them of a Smartphone. While German Smartphone owners on average spends 276 euro for a device, there are only 57 euro for simple mobile phones. It is not easy to find a Smartphone that satisfies the demands of the customers in this price class.

Germany still in the boom?

While the tips IT Association BITKOM hopes that the Smartphone boom in this country continues in the current year, the Consumer Electronics Association GFU expects stagnation. In Germany, some 51 million people have a Smartphone. With them, it will be important to convince them of a new device. However, a trend that Kantar has made acts: the average lifetime of a Smartphone in Germany is a bit longer every year. by 2015, the Germans their Smartphone average have renewed after one and a half years.

Because the Western markets where producers can sell their high-priced devices, are increasingly saturated, the music in the future in the mid-range and entry-level plays. “This has grave consequences for Apple and the high end Android League,” says IDC analyst Ryan Reith. Apple can keep customers with upgrade programs and thus stabilize its average price, market share will be according to the IDC forecast up to 2020 but a few percentage points.

Android, Windows Pooh

Android can benefit from the wide range in the lower divisions and further expand its market dominance – 2020, IDC predicts a market share of nearly 85 percent. There is growing competition in the medium price range, in which Chinese manufacturers with new high-end devices to advance. That puts the average prices and on the margins – this could be a problem for producers who can sell not the necessary quantities.

Less rosy, analysts see the future of Windows phone. In the current year to the Microsoft platform once losing 18 percent sales and falling farther behind in terms of market share, IDC expects. Almost all previously sold Windows phones are Nokia/Microsoft. At the Mobile World Congress, while some other manufacturers have shown new Windows phones, but IDC not only wonders how long you hold on the platform. By 2020, the paragraph should continue to shrink up to a market share of less than 1 percent.